Model any investment amount. SpaceX filed its S-1 on May 20, 2026 (ticker SPCX, targeting a June 12 Nasdaq debut), but per-share pricing has not been disclosed. Every output below is a function of assumptions you set. This is a teaching tool, not financial advice.
THE NUMBER THAT MATTERS MOST
At your selected 2.00T valuation, SpaceX would IPO at roughly 133x trailing revenue (~$15B FY2025). For comparison, Tesla IPO'd around 11x. A multiple this high means the bull case is largely priced in already. Your return depends less on SpaceX growing and more on whether the multiple holds. The exit-multiple slider below is where you stress-test that.
Amount you invest
Type any figure. All outputs below scale to it.
$
STEP 1 · PICK A SCENARIO
STEP 2 · ADJUST ANY ASSUMPTION
IPO allocation fill rate
60% of your order filled at IPO price
0% · shut out100% · fully filled
SpaceX is selling up to 30% of the IPO to retail via Schwab, Fidelity, Robinhood and others, at the same price as institutions. But demand is expected to far exceed supply, so you likely get only part of what you request. The unfilled portion is bought on the open at the day-one price. 100% = fully filled at IPO price. 0% = shut out, all bought on the open.
How far the open trades above the IPO price. This is the price your unfilled shares cost. SpaceX is rumored to float only ~5% of the company; a float that thin plus 110x revenue can swing hard in either direction on day one. Can be negative.
Revenue growth (CAGR)
48% / year
Reporting suggests revenue near $15B (2025) growing toward $22-24B in 2026. ~50% is an aggressive but cited near-term figure; it will not hold forever.
Exit multiple (P/S at end of hold)
58x revenue
The honest variable. Starts at ~133x and glides to this over your holding period. Mature mega-caps trade at 5-15x. Holding 110x is the real bet.
Holding period
5 years
The multiple glide completes at the end of this period. The chart traces the whole path; the table shows year marks within it.
Implied IPO price
$746.29
day-one open ~$1,007.49
Blended cost per share
$832.63
$3,000 at IPO + $2,000 on open
Shares acquired
6.01
cost basis $5,000
YEAR 5 OUTCOME · $5,000 INVESTED
$13,842.66beats an S&P 500 index fund ($8,052.55) by $5,790.11
VALUE OVER TIME
A continuous projection from an annual growth-and-multiple model. It shows the shape of the path, not week-to-week price action. The real first weeks of a thin-float IPO are far more volatile than any smooth line can show.
PROJECTED VALUE OF $5,000
Year
Implied mult.
Share price
Position value
Your CAGR
S&P 500 @ 10%
vs. S&P
Year 1
118x
$979.69
$5,883.11
18%
$5,500
+$383.11
Year 3
88x
$1,599.16
$9,603.03
24%
$6,655
+$2,948.03
Year 5
58x
$2,305.17
$13,842.66
23%
$8,052.55
+$5,790.11
At year 5, this scenario beats the S&P 500 by $5,790.11. That outperformance requires SpaceX to grow revenue 48%/yr AND the market to still pay 58x revenue at the end. Drag the exit multiple toward 10-15x, where mature mega-caps actually trade, and watch what happens.
Assumptions and limits.Share count (~2.68B) is derived from a $1.75T valuation paired with a ~$653 reference price and held fixed, so valuation and IPO price stay consistent; SpaceX's actual count, dual-class structure, and ~5% float are not finalized. Revenue is modeled from ~$15B FY2025. The fill-rate slider splits your investment between the IPO price (the allocated portion) and the day-one open (the unfilled remainder); real allocations depend on your broker and total demand. The multiple glides linearly to your exit input. The S&P 500 line uses a flat 10% nominal assumption. This model ignores lock-up expirations, taxes, and the real possibility of permanent loss. It is a tool for understanding valuation mechanics, not a forecast and not investment advice. Figures sourced from public reporting as of May 24, 2026.